If it gets tanks, but support is cut substantially, Ukraine will lose because its forces will gradually run out of munitions, mobility, and weapons. Ukraine can win the war without tanks if this level of overall support continues. This has become a long war of attrition that requires military support across the board―weapons and munitions of all kinds as well as mundane elements like trucks, medical supplies, and spare parts. What is essential is that aid has continued at a high level, as evidenced in the recent European and U.S. Victory will come from the cumulative effect of weapons and munitions provided, training for Ukrainian soldiers and units, and the resilience of the Ukrainian people. Tank battlefield capabilities will be useful, but numbers will be limited compared to the 800 or so tanks that Ukraine already possesses. Even if NATO and coalition countries provide tanks, they will not be a game changer. Such a perception misses a key point: there is no silver bullet that will bring victory. The controversy about tanks gives a misplaced sense that the meeting’s success-and Ukraine’s future―hinged on their availability. The most important news is that the aid continues at a high level. Allies are squeezing more air defense from their limited capabilities, expanding artillery support, building Ukraine’s inventory of armored vehicles, and might have a few surprises hidden away in the bland bureaucratic language. Although Germany’s angst about tanks dominated the discussion the recent Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) (ultimately, the Germans agreed), there is much more going on than just tanks.
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